Promising thin-film solar energy conversion rate for which the key
Posted by admin on Oct 15, 2009Promising thin-film solar energy conversion rate for which the key
Thin-film solar market is seen as the next generation of solar Digital Camcorder Battery energy products, mainly in its production costs competitive, subject to the limitation polysilicon material sources less, once a smooth mass production, will be able to accelerate the global popularization of solar energy products, but regardless of what kind of thin-film solar cells, most of the issues to be addressed, that is its conversion rate.
Solar industry said that the problem is the large volume production for all the breakthroughs in thin-film solar cells, the conversion rate is generally low-key films have not yet universal, although the conversion rates are denominated in solar cells based on the current conventional single, multi-crystal crystal silicon solar cells are about 16 ~ 18% conversion rate, thin-film solar cells an average of about 8 ~ 10%, but per unit area required to set up point of view, thin-film solar energy will require a relatively large space, the relevant system installation costs become high – .
The current mainstream crystalline silicon solar products, due to the lack of polysilicon materials, so that limited growth, while rapid growth in global demand stimulus, it is also further stimulated with low dependence on polysilicon thin-film solar rapid development, the general forecast thin-film solar is expected to begin in 2010, and will gradually into a more mature stage.
With the traditional crystalline silicon solar cells compared to many types of thin-film solar cells, including amorphous silicon (amorphoussilicon; a-Si), microcrystalline silicon (NanocrystallineSilicon, nc-Si), copper indium selenide compounds (CIS / CIGS), cadmium telluride (CdTe), multi-junction Digital Camera Battery gallium arsenide (MultijuctionGaAs), dye-sensitized dye (Dye-SensitizedSolarCell), the organic conductive polymer (Organic / polymersolarcells) and so on.
Where a-Si thin-film solar cell in the market share of about 3 ~ 4 into, including the leader of the Japanese Kaneka is currently an annual capacity of approximately 30 megawatts (MWp), 2008 years reaching 70MWp, the United States UnitedSolar current production capacity of about 25MWp, estimated in 2007 up to 50MWp, 2010 attaining the 300MWp, are produced mainly a-Si.
The 1980s, a-Si is the only commercial thin-film solar cells, thin-film solar is currently the highest market share though, but the conversion efficiency of about 10%, the general estimate if there is no breakthrough in their conversion rates, future market share will be continued to decline, while the laboratory phase of CIGS conversion rate of up to 19%, were considered for future development, whereas the majority used in outer space MultijuctionGaAs, laboratory phase conversion rate of up to 41%.
If the world’s largest solar-cell factory in Japan and panel maker Sharp (Sharp), in addition to the traditional crystalline silicon, the field of solar energy in the film is a multi-slightly-related, including a-Si, MultijuctionGaAs diversified direction .
Fuel cells and solar energy technologies into China encourages import of technology
According to the Ministry of Commerce sources, in order to implement Canon Battery the “State Council on the implementation of the” Long-term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020) “a number of supporting policies of the notice” requirement, to encourage enterprises to introduce foreign advanced technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Taxation Administration jointly formulated the “China encourages the import of technology directory.”
This catalog covers agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, coal mining and washing, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing industry, large-tonnage railway rescue crane and truck crane with tracks and manufacturing development, Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing 81 industries, involving more than 400 kinds of technology.
It is particularly worth mentioning is that this directory also includes solar photovoltaic technology, fuel cell manufacturing equipment, technology and other emerging energy technologies, a new component manufacturing technology, integrated circuit design and testing technology, integrated circuit chip manufacturing and closure installation process technology, semiconductor and integrated circuit manufacturing technology-specific production equipment, integrated circuits with the key material preparation technology, liquid crystal display devices and plasma (PDP) flat glass for display devices and other electronic manufacturing equipment, as well as the key to digital television technology.
Chinese and French scientists will jointly develop a new environmentally-friendly car batteries
French Education Minister Gilles de Robien and Research (Gilles de Robien), announced today that Science and Technology Minister Xu in Beijing, China signed an agreement on energy storage research in the field of new technologies a framework agreement. Under the agreement, Chinese Canon BP-208 and French scientists will jointly develop a new type of environmentally friendly automotive batteries, this technology will help reduce vehicle exhaust emissions and ease the greenhouse effect of global warming.
Drobin believe that this joint research and development cooperation projects of environmental protection for the future of great significance. He said that while battery technology has been available for many years, but now the volume of batteries available in the market relatively large quantity of heavy, while the Chinese and French scientists have to overcome the problem is how to create a lightweight, more energy-efficient car battery.
Accompanying drobin visit of the French scientist Jean – Malidala Si Gong (Jean-Marie Tarascon) told reporters that the new batteries will reduce the cars on the traditional chemical energy such as oil dependence, and use of clean energy such as electrical power “If the new technology put into use is bound to help reduce vehicle exhaust emissions.”
Dalasigong said the two scientists is expected to R & D results into production in 2008.
Japan’s electric vehicle startup billion yen for the national project
Japanese NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) was held February 5, “a new generation of high-performance battery systems technology vehicle development” seminars, and public input that will be time-consuming five-year high of about ¥ 10,000,000,000 Development rechargeable battery The project outline. The newly developed idea is equipped with rechargeable batteries in the rechargeable power supply from the home of the plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.
Development project is divided into three parts.
First, the development could substantially increase the performance of existing lithium-ion Canon BP-511 rechargeable battery of core technology. And has set the year 2015 and 2015 after two goals: the goal is 2015, the weight of vehicle battery system energy density 100Wh/kg, life expectancy is more than 10 years at a cost of ¥ 40,000 / kWh ( production of 1 million / year time) and so on. After 2015, the goal is to weight the energy density of 200Wh/kg above cost of ¥ 30,000 / kWh below.
Second, the development beyond the new lithium-ion rechargeable battery electrode materials such as basic research. Planned after 2030, the weight of the energy density of 500Wh/kg.
Third, the development of rechargeable batteries used to develop safety standards and testing standards of the basic technology.
Japan’s economy, Trade and Industry to develop vehicle rechargeable batteries, in 2007, included in the annual budget of 17 billion yen, this is the first release of specific project objectives. Development projects scheduled to be completed in 5 years, plans to invest a total of about 100 billion yen. Is expected to battery manufacturers, automobile manufacturers, universities and research institutions will be involved in project development, scheduled to open in March began collecting development projects.
Chemical industry: focus on the release of production capacity so that prices fell sharply
Lithium carbonate prices are currently high, profitability is considerable, so the market right foot in the business CITIC lithium carbonate mineral is very favorable for a peaceful and Tibet. We believe that the need to treat with caution.
Lithium carbonate industry is a global high degree of monopoly industries, production capacity mainly concentrated in SQM, FMC, Chemetall, three hands of foreign manufacturers, and now they have pricing power. From a historical price movements of view, the global lithium carbonate prices hub at 20,000 yuan / ton level.
By the end of 2004 beginning of lithium carbonate prices have soared, prices have now risen 45000-100000 yuan / ton range. Despite soaring prices of the reasons for the increased demand, but the main reason for limiting the production of price increases and international giants results. Price spikes of the point just made a breakthrough in China’s technology when lithium carbonate. Thus, the international giants in time for the large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China prior to their commissioning intentions to Canon LP-E5 make the final sum of profits is very obvious.
The global lithium carbonate market is small, although the latter part of the demand to maintain a certain growth rate, but because there are million-ton continuous lithium carbonate project put into production, the global lithium carbonate market oversupply situation will occur in 2007 and gradually increased. As the capacity of excessive increase in the latter part of lithium carbonate prices will quickly fall. We lithium carbonate prices are expected to return to 20,000 yuan / ton price level. From the time perspective, the expected first half of 2007 is the high price of lithium carbonate and then begin to decline ,2008-2009 down to 20,000 yuan / ton level.
Lithium carbonate price movements based on judgments, we believe that the market for a peaceful and Tibet Mineral Lithium Carbonate CITIC’s earnings outlook was too optimistic about the project, with the lithium carbonate prices down gradually, the market performance of the two companies are expected to be progressively revised downwards, This will give the two companies share price upward pressure. Based on the two company’s current stock price, given CITIC Guoan (000,839) short-term “overweight”, long-term “overweight” investment rating given to Tibet Mining (000,762) short-term “wait and see”, long-term “overweight” investment rating.
Main points of view: lithium carbonate margins below expectations
Large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China recently put into production (CITIC Guoan 25 thousand tons / year of lithium carbonate project put into operation January 11), post-mining industry in Tibet there are 25 thousand tons / year of lithium carbonate project construction plans and the Group of 10 thousand tons salt / year of lithium carbonate project planning (currently being 200 tons / year in the test), for these large-scale projects are put into the market for the sought-performance was mainly due to the current price of lithium carbonate is very high. The current domestic price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate to 45,000 yuan / ton or so, battery grade lithium carbonate price of 70,000 yuan / ton or so, high purity lithium carbonate price is as high as 100,000 yuan / ton or more, and these new projects is the use of salt brine extraction due to carbonate Lithium, the cost of production in 10000-15000 yuan / tons. Therefore, the market Canon NB-1LH generally felt that the profitability of lithium carbonate products is very high, this will bring a huge increase in performance related companies.
Through the global lithium carbonate market supply and demand conditions, as well as lithium carbonate prices, analysis of historical trends, we believe that lithium carbonate requires careful look at the profitability of the project:
1, the global lithium carbonate market prices historical center at 20,000 yuan / ton or so, until 2004 the world’s production capacity has been higher than the demand for 2005-2006 years, which is an increase in demand, but the fundamental balance of supply and demand. Beginning of the end of 2004 was not due to lithium price spikes caused by reversal of supply and demand, but an international giant, the results of limiting the production of price increases aimed at large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China in time for pre-production to make the final sum of profits.
2, the global lithium carbonate market of limited size. With the large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China gradually put into production, the global lithium carbonate market will enter a situation of oversupply, prices will rapidly decline in lithium carbonate. We believe that 2008 will be the year of lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, the price is expected to return to the previous price of 20,000 yuan central / ton.
3, lithium carbonate project would bring CITIC Wo Tibet Mineral substantial increase in performance, but not so optimistic market expectations, especially after 2008. Thus, to draw investors to measure the profitability of the project when lithium carbonate to maintain the necessary calm.
1, lithium carbonate areas of application and production processes more
1.1 Lithium applications and quality standards
Lithium is widely used in battery industry, ceramic industry, glass industry, aluminum laptop battery industry, lubricants, cooling agents, the nuclear industry and optoelectronic industries in emerging applications. Since the production of lithium carbonate lithium rechargeable lithium salt and the base material, lithium carbonate lithium industry, and therefore the most critical products, other industrial lithium products basically are the downstream lithium carbonate products.
1.2 lithium carbonate production process and cost comparison
Lithium carbonate production methods due to the differences in the use of resources is divided into two main categories: mineral extracting lithium and lithium salt lake brine to mention the current lithium salt lake brine to mention is the world’s main production methods. Salt lake brine lithium process are many ways to mention, mainly divided into precipitation, solvent extraction, ion exchange adsorption, carbonization and calcination-extraction method. This section has several kinds of industrial production process are introduced.
1.2.1 Extracting Lithium from Ore – lime sintering method
Lime sintering method is spodumene (lithium oxide are generally 6%) and limestone by 1: (2.5 ~ 3) weight ratio of ingredients, mixing grinded and sintered at 1150-1250 ℃ produce aluminum lithium and calcium silicate by wet grinding, leaching with lotion lithium hydroxide, after sedimentation filtration, washing residues return or slag, leaching solution by evaporation, and then adding sodium carbonate (soda ash) to generate lithium carbonate, and then by centrifugal separation, drying, the system have lithium carbonate product.
The reaction equation is as follows:
Fatti ore production capacity of lithium mainly concentrated in China, the laptops battery production scale is about 1.5-1.7 million tons / year. Sichuan Shehong Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is the country’s largest manufacturer of mineral law and its lithium carbonate production capacity of 5,000 tons / year, of which the industrial level and battery-level capacity of 2,500 tons / year. The company has battery grade lithium carbonate in the core technology in the field of company has a strong competitive edge. Company and an Australian spodumene suppliers (the supplier of ore grade is much higher than the supply of the domestic lithium ore) have entered into an exclusive supply of spodumene exclusive agreement to supply of raw materials more stable. At present the cost of lithium carbonate minerals France 3 yuan / ton, the company’s costs are projected at 2.5 yuan / tons.
1.2.2 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – precipitation (carbonate precipitation)
Precipitation method can also be broken down as follows: carbonate precipitation, aluminate precipitation, magnesium and boron lithium boron co-precipitation method. Among them, to achieve industrial production was carbonate precipitation.
1.2.3 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – carbonization
Carbonization method mainly based on lithium carbonate and carbon dioxide, water solubility of the larger reaction thus lithium bicarbonate brine separation of lithium and other elements. This process on the request for resources is very high salt, low Mg-Li than the carbonate salt for this approach. Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet in China is the world’s third largest lithium resource of more than one million tons super Salt Lake, but also the world’s only high-quality lithium-rich low-magnesium carbonate-type salt lakes, brine lithium using natural stone precipitation Zabuye .
Salt lake brine lithium Zabuye further enrichment enrichment difficulties, the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and geothermal water resources in Salt Lake Research Center, Academician Zheng Mianping Zabuye Salt Lake lithium resources for Tibet to study Tibetan Plateau special geographic environment suitable for the “Solar Pond” and the Mineral water-extraction method technology, successfully developed a “scrub – Separation – flooding – Carbide – pyrolysis,” Preparation of lithium carbonate new process, the resulting concentrate grade 76.86% lithium carbonate, lithium recovery rate of 72.91%. The method is simple technology, low production costs, product quality and so on. In recent years laptop batteries, Lake has been established Zabuye 3.3 million m2 of salt fields, the first time at the international level of salinity gradient solar pond production of lithium carbonate.
1.2.4 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – Calcined Leaching
This law is mentioned after the brine evaporation of boron to the water, 50 percent received four water and magnesium chloride mixture at 700 ℃ calcined 2h, to be a mixture of magnesium oxide and so on, and then add the flooding taking lithium (Li leaching solution containing 0.14%) with milk of lime and soda ash to remove calcium, magnesium and other impurities, the solution to the evaporation of Li containing about 2% by adding sodium carbonate to precipitate out lithium carbonate, lithium yield of about 90%. After calcined magnesia slag refined purity of 98.5% of magnesium oxide obtained by-product. This approach is conducive to comprehensive utilization of resources such as lithium-magnesium, low consumption of raw materials, but the extraction of magnesium so that process complex, equipment corrosion and serious and would need a larger amount of water evaporation, energy consumption of major.
CITIC Guoan (23.8,0.22,0.93%) of lithium carbonate is the adoption of the technology, the company with potassium, which provides post-boron-containing lithium-bischofite saturated brine as the raw material, using spray drying, calcining, water washing, evaporation concentration and precipitation process, from high-Mg-Li conducted in magnesium than in salt lake brine lithium separation of lithium carbonate to obtain high-quality and high-purity magnesium oxide and hydrochloric acid by-product industries.
1.2.5 Cost Comparison
From a cost perspective, the ore is much higher than the cost of extracting lithium from salt lake brine lithium mentioned, previously the law had been introduced ore production costs roughly 3 tons / tons.
In addition to production technology, the salt lake brine lithium to mention the various processes that affect the cost of lithium carbonate are two main factors:
1, Salt Lake in the lithium content of the high and low, in general, the higher the cost of salt the lower lithium content; 2, Salt Lake in the Mg-Li ratio, the smaller the better in general than the Mg-Li.
Tibet Mining (13.98,0.30,2.19%) developed a high lithium content Zabuye Salt Lake, though slightly lower than Chile’s Atacama Salt Lake (SQM’s development), but the Salt Lake Zabuye Very low levels of magnesium, magnesium and lithium than in the 0.003 or so, much lower than Chile’s Atacama salt lake, much lower than CITIC Guoan something to be developed taijnar than lithium salt of magnesium (the two Salt Lake than in the Mg-Li between 40-68 times), more critical is The salt lake in the form of lithium carbonate is based on the company processes required for lithium carbonate precipitates less, low cost, it is expected that the cost of Tibet’s lithium mining companies should be less than the SQM.
CITIC Guoan something to be developed taijnar lithium salt content low, substantially laptop battery lower than Chile’s Atacama Salt Lake SQM lithium content of magnesium and lithium salt lake in the region than is very high, much higher than Chile’s Atacama salt lake Mg-Li ratio. However, because the two companies use different processes, SQM process on soda ash consumption of larger and CITIC Guoan large energy consumption is expected to CITIC Guoan Lithium Carbonate SQM’s costs and a considerable, but because of isolated magnesium, boron and other products, so utilization lower cost.
Chile’s SQM’s lithium carbonate estimated cost of 12,000 yuan / ton level, Tibet is expected to cost less than lithium mining company SQM, roughly at 10,000 yuan / ton, while the CITIC Guoan Lithium Carbonate costs are expected to around 12,000 yuan / ton or so (after the scale there is a certain drop in the cost of space).
2, lithium carbonate supply and demand analysis of
2.1 Li-ion batteries widely used in driving the growth of the global consumption of lithium
The global lithium carbonate market size is not large, according to SQM is estimated that in 2005 about 77.2 thousand tons. In recent years, demand for lithium carbonate showed rapid growth, especially the rapid growth of lithium batteries is most prominent. According to SQM is expected in the next few years, the world’s annual production of lithium-ion battery will maintain a rapid growth, annual growth rate of 30%. In addition, other issues such as ceramics, glass products, industrial air conditioning and alloys, lithium-demand growth fairly quickly.
With lithium salt as the key raw material for secondary battery in the electronics industry (laptop computers, mobile phones, digital cameras, as well as a variety of other consumer electronics) in a wide range of applications in 2003, the output of these batteries close to 1.4 billion in 2004 to reach 2 billion , and the future will continue rapid growth.
In power batteries, lithium-ion battery applications are expanding. At present Japan has a hybrid electric vehicle more than 70,000 is expected in 2010 will reach 2.1 million. The U.S. market is also very optimistic about growth prospects, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey, hybrid cars will become the market mainstream products.
China’s lithium-ion batteries in electric bicycles and electric bus application products as very promising. CITIC Guoan Mengguli the company’s commitment to the company’s “high-capacity manganese lithium power battery research” organized by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission inspection and appraisal topics have been identified to achieve international advanced level. Use Mengguli company 100Ah high-capacity secure manganese lithium battery powered electric bus, the maximum speed 120 km / h, on a single charge mileage of 210 kilometers, has completed the demonstration operations 12,000 kilometers. At present, organized by the National Development and Reform Commission automobile lithium Dell Battery manganese battery power the national standard-setting work has been approved by the specialists, Mengguli company is actively promoting the various parties seek to make loader Mengguli power lithium-ion batteries for electric bus vehicles put into operation as soon as possible at home and abroad.
According to SQM is expected in the next 5-10 years, the global lithium demand will be 5% -7% growth rate, this growth rate higher than the level of global economic growth, showing that the global lithium industry is a strong industry GDP. We believe that taking into account the power battery lithium batteries in the field of consumer electronics continued to expand, as well as an upsurge of optimism in the global lithium carbonate demand could be given an 8% annual growth rate, based on this assumption gives the global lithium carbonate demand conditions (table 3 ):
2.2 lithium carbonate worldwide industry concentration is very high, late and rapid expansion of production capacity
As the main raw material for production of lithium carbonate is the salt lake brine (France due to the high cost of ore production capacity in the global small), so that large-scale production of lithium carbonate of the enterprises must have a more abundant reserves of lithium salt lake resources, resource exploitation rights, which makes the industry with more the resources of the high barriers to entry; the other hand, the vast majority of the world’s resources are high-magnesium salt low-lithium, low-from high-magnesium lithium brine separation of lithium carbonate in the purification process technology is very difficult, only the hands of these technologies before the hands of a small number of foreign companies, which makes lithium carbonate industry, but also provides many technical barriers. Therefore, lithium carbonate has created the industry’s global oligopoly structure.
The current global lithium carbonate market concentration is very high. Several large-scale projects in China prior to their commissioning the world’s major production concentrated in SQM, FMC, and Chemetall three hands, which SQM capacity of 28,000 tons / year, FMC capacity of 22,000 tons / year, Chemetall capacity of 18 thousand tons, The three companies account for about a global production capacity of 73%. The latter part of the three companies have expansion plans, SQM plans for production in Inspiron 8600 Battery 2008 12,000 tons / year of new projects, FMC is expected on stream in 2009 of 5,000 tons / year of new projects, Chemetall planned for production in 2008 of 5,000 tons / year of the new items.
Although our country has a higher value of the salt lake resources, but has until 2004 to achieve high-Mg low-lithium brine purification of lithium carbonate solution, the key technological breakthroughs, enabling the country to enter the global lithium carbonate market. Currently there are planned large-scale projects there are two:
1, CITIC Guoan Planning, 35 thousand tons / year lithium carbonate projects, of which 25 thousand tons / year project has been with the January 11, 2007 put into operation successfully; 2, Tibet Mineral Planning 3 million ton / year lithium carbonate, its 5,000 tons / year production line put into operation in 2005, the current production lines operating conditions are generally expected annual output of 2006 tons in 1000-1500, the company is reporting 25 thousand tons / year lithium carbonate project, the project has been running since early flow, and therefore ton of time put into the project is difficult to estimate (in the back of production forecast, we assume that the company put into operation in 2008 by the end of the project).
3, lithium carbonate price trend analysis
Prices rose 3.1: Demand-driven pricing, or oligarchy?
The international market price of lithium carbonate in 2004 began a rapid rise after the process, the reasons for the rise, with many research institutions will be reduced to the needs of its rapid growth, and we took a different view: a global lithium carbonate demand and there is no explosive growth of Inspiron 9200 Battery production capacity is always guaranteed.
Our analysis of the international giants SQM Lithium Carbonate company since 2001, production of lithium carbonate and its derivatives and the achievement of income, found that the company’s 2005 production of lithium carbonate and its derivatives significantly reduced compared to 2004 by 14.72% in the world background of increasing demand, the company lithium carbonate production decline intriguing. In 2005, the result of reduced production of lithium carbonate is 30.03 percent revenue increase year on year, the global lithium carbonate prices here have begun rising.
At the same time in 2004, CITIC is China’s industrialization and development of peaceful and Tibet Mineral Lithium Carbonate imminent breakthrough time. CITIC Guoan’s pilot production line at the end of 2004, begin construction in mining in Tibet in 2005, successfully completed a 5,000 tons / year production line. The two companies are the 10000-ton lithium carbonate project planning, capacity almost equal to the size of the size of SQM. The completion of these projects put into production on the global lithium carbonate market impact is easy to foresee.
Can be seen, the global lithium carbonate price point is just quick-start projects face a breakthrough in China’s lithium carbonate, the late coming on stream of large-scale projects, the most likely to be driven lithium carbonate production in China’s large-scale projects as much as possible before the use of its monopoly power to earn more profits.
3.2 Price trend of late: prices are expected to return to the historical center
From Table 6 and Figure 2 shows, with the large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China gradually put into production, lithium carbonate or less balanced relationship between supply and demand will rapidly deteriorate in 2007 will be overcapacity in the global lithium carbonate 13.2 thousand tons, in 2008 the situation will deteriorate further, supply significantly exceeds demand, prices will inevitably lead to rapid decline.
For the release of capacity to focus on the impact of price shocks, an interpretation that since production concentrated in the hands of a few enterprises, these enterprises will ease the coordination of capacity utilization shocks. We doubt it.
China’s chemical industry has experienced more than capacity can focus on the release of earnings Inspiron 9300 Battery caused by a serious deterioration in industry conditions:
PVC industry by 2004 as high prices attracted a lot of money into the industry, resulting in 2005 annual production capacity can focus on the release, resulting in PVC prices from a high, sharp downturn, the whole industry into a downturn quickly, PVC sharp drop in economic efficiency of enterprises; polyester industry, along with a large number of poly – ester production competition, rapid deterioration of a substantial decline in product prices in the industry have also led to the rapid move toward a comprehensive loss-making situation.
Lithium carbonate products in spite of certain resources and technical barriers, but our values are readily available in Salt Lake is still a lot of mining, technology, inter CITIC Guoan, Tibet, outside the Salt Lake Mining Group, is also facing a breakthrough, trade barriers are gradually weakened, the industry is currently a high gross the interest rate is bound to attract more capital to intervene.
For the possibility of oligopolistic collusion, we believe that more difficult. Analysis of the income of the world’s leading companies constitute a lithium carbonate found that lithium carbonate in the main business of these companies share is very limited. 2005 SQM company’s main business revenue in the proportion of lithium carbonate and its derivatives, is only 9%, FMC Corporation’s lithium carbonate and its derivatives, the proportion of only 8%, lithium carbonate prices downward impact on its performance is very small.
In addition, the three giants in the development of downstream products of lithium carbonate have also been more successful, SQM in butyl lithium, lithium hydroxide involvement in the development of products such as deeper; FMC Lithium used in medicine, rechargeable batteries have a very major advantage; Chemetall lithium hydroxide, lithium hydride, and other lithium salts have a greater advantage of the development. Lithium carbonate is lithium salt, and other derivatives of the raw materials, lithium salts and other compounds added value is higher than lithium carbonate, especially in the field of medicine and battery products with high added value, these factories can be converted to the lithium carbonate More other high value-added lithium derivatives to eliminate lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply negative impact.Promising thin-film solar energy conversion rate for which the key
Thin-film solar market is seen as the next generation of solar energy products, mainly in its Inspiron 9400 Battery production costs competitive, subject to the limitation polysilicon material sources less, once a smooth mass production, will be able to accelerate the global popularization of solar energy products, but regardless of what kind of thin-film solar cells, most of the issues to be addressed, that is its conversion rate.
Solar industry said that the problem is the large volume production for all the breakthroughs in thin-film solar cells, the conversion rate is generally low-key films have not yet universal, although the conversion rates are denominated in solar cells based on the current conventional single, multi-crystal crystal silicon solar cells are about 16 ~ 18% conversion rate, thin-film solar cells an average of about 8 ~ 10%, but per unit area required to set up point of view, thin-film solar energy will require a relatively large space, the relevant system installation costs become high – .
The current mainstream crystalline silicon solar products, due to the lack of polysilicon materials, so that limited growth, while rapid growth in global demand stimulus, it is also further stimulated with low dependence on polysilicon thin-film solar rapid development, the general forecast thin-film solar is expected to begin in 2010, and will gradually into a more mature stage.
With the traditional crystalline silicon solar cells compared to many types of thin-film solar cells, including amorphous silicon (amorphoussilicon; a-Si), microcrystalline silicon (NanocrystallineSilicon, nc-Si), copper indium selenide compounds (CIS / CIGS), cadmium telluride (CdTe), multi-junction gallium arsenide (MultijuctionGaAs), dye-sensitized dye (Dye-SensitizedSolarCell), the organic conductive polymer (Organic / polymersolarcells) and so on.
Where a-Si thin-film solar cell in the market share of about 3 ~ 4 into, including the leader of the Japanese Kaneka is currently an annual capacity of approximately 30 megawatts (MWp), 2008 years reaching 70MWp, the United States UnitedSolar current production capacity of about 25MWp, estimated in 2007 up to 50MWp, 2010 attaining the 300MWp, are produced mainly a-Si.
The 1980s, a-Si is the only commercial thin-film solar cells, thin-film solar is currently the highest market share though, but the conversion efficiency of about 10%, the general estimate if there is no breakthrough in their conversion rates, future market share will be continued to decline, while the laboratory phase Inspiron B120 Battery of CIGS conversion rate of up to 19%, were considered for future development, whereas the majority used in outer space MultijuctionGaAs, laboratory phase conversion rate of up to 41%.
If the world’s largest solar-cell factory in Japan and panel maker Sharp (Sharp), in addition to the traditional crystalline silicon, the field of solar energy in the film is a multi-slightly-related, including a-Si, MultijuctionGaAs diversified direction .
Fuel cells and solar energy technologies into China encourages import of technology
According to the Ministry of Commerce sources, in order to implement the “State Council on the implementation of the” Long-term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020) “a number of supporting policies of the notice” requirement, to encourage enterprises to introduce foreign advanced technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Taxation Administration jointly formulated the “China encourages the import of technology directory.”
This catalog covers agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, coal mining and washing, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing industry, large-tonnage railway rescue crane and truck crane with tracks and manufacturing development, Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing 81 industries, involving more than 400 kinds of technology.
It is particularly worth mentioning is that this directory also includes solar photovoltaic technology, fuel cell manufacturing equipment, technology and other emerging energy technologies, a new component manufacturing technology, integrated circuit design and testing technology, integrated circuit chip Inspiron B130 Battery manufacturing and closure installation process technology, semiconductor and integrated circuit manufacturing technology-specific production equipment, integrated circuits with the key material preparation technology, liquid crystal display devices and plasma (PDP) flat glass for display devices and other electronic manufacturing equipment, as well as the key to digital television technology.
Chinese and French scientists will jointly develop a new environmentally-friendly car batteries
French Education Minister Gilles de Robien and Research (Gilles de Robien), announced today that Science and Technology Minister Xu in Beijing, China signed an agreement on energy storage research in the field of new technologies a framework agreement. Under the agreement, Chinese and French scientists will jointly develop a new type of environmentally friendly automotive batteries, this technology will help reduce vehicle exhaust emissions and ease the greenhouse effect of global warming.
Drobin believe that this joint research and development cooperation projects of environmental protection for the future of great significance. He said that while battery technology has been available for many years, but now the volume of batteries available in the market relatively large quantity of heavy, while the Chinese and French scientists have to overcome the problem is how to create a lightweight, more energy-efficient car battery.
Accompanying drobin visit of the French scientist Jean – Malidala Si Gong (Jean-Marie Tarascon) told reporters that the new batteries will reduce the cars on the traditional chemical energy such as oil dependence, and use of clean energy such as electrical power “If the new technology put into use is bound to help reduce vehicle exhaust emissions.”
Dalasigong said the two scientists is expected to R & D results into production in 2008.
Japan’s electric vehicle startup billion yen for the national project
Japanese NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) was held February Inspiron E1405 Battery 5, “a new generation of high-performance battery systems technology vehicle development” seminars, and public input that will be time-consuming five-year high of about ¥ 10,000,000,000 Development rechargeable battery The project outline. The newly developed idea is equipped with rechargeable batteries in the rechargeable power supply from the home of the plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.
Development project is divided into three parts.
First, the development could substantially increase the performance of existing lithium-ion rechargeable battery of core technology. And has set the year 2015 and 2015 after two goals: the goal is 2015, the weight of vehicle battery system energy density 100Wh/kg, life expectancy is more than 10 years at a cost of $ 40,000 / kWh ( production of 1 million / year time) and so on. After 2015, the goal is to weight the energy density of 200Wh/kg above cost of ¥ 30,000 / kWh below.
Second, the development beyond the new lithium-ion rechargeable battery electrode materials such as basic research. Planned after 2030, the weight of the energy density of 500Wh/kg.
Third, the development of rechargeable batteries used to develop safety standards and testing standards of the basic technology.
Japan’s economy, Trade and Industry to develop vehicle rechargeable batteries, in 2007, included in the annual budget of 17 billion yen, this is the first release of specific project objectives. Development projects scheduled to be completed in 5 years, plans to invest a total of about 100 billion yen. Is expected to battery manufacturers, automobile manufacturers, universities and research institutions will be involved in project development, scheduled to open in March began collecting development projects.
Chemical industry: focus on the release of production capacity so that prices fell sharply
Lithium carbonate prices are currently high, profitability is considerable, so the market right foot Inspiron E1505 Battery in the business CITIC lithium carbonate mineral is very favorable for a peaceful and Tibet. We believe that the need to treat with caution.
Lithium carbonate industry is a global high degree of monopoly industries, production capacity mainly concentrated in SQM, FMC, Chemetall, three hands of foreign manufacturers, and now they have pricing power. From a historical price movements of view, the global lithium carbonate prices hub at 20,000 yuan / ton level.
By the end of 2004 beginning of lithium carbonate prices have soared, prices have now risen 45000-100000 yuan / ton range. Despite soaring prices of the reasons for the increased demand, but the main reason for limiting the production of price increases and international giants results. Price spikes of the point just made a breakthrough in China’s technology when lithium carbonate. Thus, the international giants in time for the large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China prior to their commissioning intentions to make the final sum of profits is very obvious.
The global lithium carbonate market is small, although the latter part of the demand to maintain a certain growth rate, but because there are million-ton continuous lithium carbonate project put into production, the global lithium carbonate market oversupply situation will occur in 2007 and gradually increased. As the capacity of excessive increase in the latter part of lithium carbonate prices will quickly fall. We lithium carbonate prices are expected to return to 20,000 yuan / ton price level. From the time perspective, the expected first half of 2007 is the high price of lithium carbonate and then begin to decline ,2008-2009 down to 20,000 yuan / ton level.
Lithium carbonate price movements based on judgments, we believe that the market for a peaceful and Tibet Mineral Lithium Carbonate CITIC’s earnings outlook was too optimistic about the project, with the lithium carbonate prices down gradually, the market performance of the two companies are expected to be progressively revised downwards, This will give the two companies share price upward pressure. Based on the two company’s current stock price, given CITIC Guoan (000,839) short-term “overweight”, long-term “overweight” investment Inspiron E1705 Battery rating given to Tibet Mining (000,762) short-term “wait and see”, long-term “overweight” investment rating.
Main points of view: lithium carbonate margins below expectations
Large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China recently put into production (CITIC Guoan 25 thousand tons / year of lithium carbonate project put into operation January 11), post-mining industry in Tibet there are 25 thousand tons / year of lithium carbonate project construction plans and the Group of 10 thousand tons salt / year of lithium carbonate project planning (currently being 200 tons / year in the test), for these large-scale projects are put into the market for the sought-performance was mainly due to the current price of lithium carbonate is very high. The current domestic price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate to 45,000 yuan / ton or so, battery grade lithium carbonate price of 70,000 yuan / ton or so, high purity lithium carbonate price is as high as 100,000 yuan / ton or more, and these new projects is the use of salt brine extraction due to carbonate Lithium, the cost of production in 10000-15000 yuan / tons. Therefore, the market generally felt that the profitability of lithium carbonate products is very high, this will bring a huge increase in performance related companies.
Through the global lithium carbonate market supply and demand conditions, as well as lithium carbonate prices, analysis of historical trends, we believe that lithium carbonate requires careful look at the profitability of the project:
1, the global lithium carbonate market prices historical center at 20,000 yuan / ton or so, until 2004 the world’s production capacity has been higher than the demand for 2005-2006 years, which is an increase in demand, but the fundamental balance of supply and demand. Beginning of the end of 2004 was not due to lithium price spikes caused by reversal of supply and demand, but an international giant, the results of limiting the production of price increases aimed at large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China in time for pre-production to make the final sum of profits.
2, the global lithium carbonate market of limited size. With the large-scale lithium carbonate projects Latitude D410 Battery in China gradually put into production, the global lithium carbonate market will enter a situation of oversupply, prices will rapidly decline in lithium carbonate. We believe that 2008 will be the year of lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply, the price is expected to return to the previous price of 20,000 yuan central / ton.
3, lithium carbonate project would bring CITIC Wo Tibet Mineral substantial increase in performance, but not so optimistic market expectations, especially after 2008. Thus, to draw investors to measure the profitability of the project when lithium carbonate to maintain the necessary calm.
1, lithium carbonate areas of application and production processes more
1.1 Lithium applications and quality standards
Lithium is widely used in battery industry, ceramic industry, glass industry, aluminum industry, lubricants, cooling agents, the nuclear industry and optoelectronic industries in emerging applications. Since the production of lithium carbonate lithium rechargeable lithium salt and the base material, lithium carbonate lithium industry, and therefore the most critical products, other industrial lithium products basically are the downstream lithium carbonate products.
1.2 lithium carbonate production process and cost comparison
Lithium carbonate production methods due to the differences in the use of resources is divided into two main categories: mineral extracting lithium and lithium salt lake brine to mention the current lithium salt lake brine to mention is the world’s main production methods. Salt lake brine lithium process are many ways to mention, mainly divided into precipitation, solvent extraction, ion exchange adsorption, carbonization and calcination-extraction method. This section has several kinds of industrial production process are introduced.
1.2.1 Extracting Lithium from Ore – lime sintering method
Lime sintering method is spodumene (lithium oxide are generally 6%) and limestone by 1: (2.5 ~ 3) weight Latitude D420 Battery ratio of ingredients, mixing grinded and sintered at 1150-1250 ℃ produce aluminum lithium and calcium silicate by wet grinding, leaching with lotion lithium hydroxide, after sedimentation filtration, washing residues return or slag, leaching solution by evaporation, and then adding sodium carbonate (soda ash) to generate lithium carbonate, and then by centrifugal separation, drying, the system have lithium carbonate product.
The reaction equation is as follows:
Fatti ore production capacity of lithium mainly concentrated in China, the production scale is about 1.5-1.7 million tons / year. Sichuan Shehong Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is the country’s largest manufacturer of mineral law and its lithium carbonate production capacity of 5,000 tons / year, of which the industrial level and battery-level capacity of 2,500 tons / year. The company has battery grade lithium carbonate in the core technology in the field of company has a strong competitive edge. Company and an Australian spodumene suppliers (the supplier of ore grade is much higher than the supply of the domestic lithium ore) have entered into an exclusive supply of spodumene exclusive agreement to supply of raw materials more stable. At present the cost of lithium carbonate minerals France 3 yuan / ton, the company’s costs are projected at 2.5 yuan / tons.
1.2.2 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – precipitation (carbonate precipitation)
Precipitation method can also be broken down as follows: carbonate precipitation, aluminate precipitation, magnesium and boron lithium boron co-precipitation method. Among them, to achieve industrial production was carbonate precipitation.
1.2.3 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – carbonization
Carbonization method mainly based on lithium carbonate and carbon dioxide, water solubility of the larger reaction thus lithium bicarbonate brine separation of lithium and other elements. This process on the request for resources is very high salt, low Mg-Li than the carbonate salt for this approach. Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet in China is the world’s third largest lithium resource of more than one million tons super Salt Lake, but also the world’s only high-quality lithium-rich low-magnesium carbonate-type salt lakes, brine lithium using natural Latitude D430 Battery stone precipitation Zabuye .
Salt lake brine lithium Zabuye further enrichment enrichment difficulties, the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and geothermal water resources in Salt Lake Research Center, Academician Zheng Mianping Zabuye Salt Lake lithium resources for Tibet to study Tibetan Plateau special geographic environment suitable for the “Solar Pond” and the Mineral water-extraction method technology, successfully developed a “scrub – Separation – flooding – Carbide – pyrolysis,” Preparation of lithium carbonate new process, the resulting concentrate grade 76.86% lithium carbonate, lithium recovery rate of 72.91%. The method is simple technology, low production costs, product quality and so on. In recent years, Lake has been established Zabuye 3.3 million m2 of salt fields, the first time at the international level of salinity gradient solar pond production of lithium carbonate.
1.2.4 Extracting Lithium from Salt Lake Brine – Calcined Leaching
This law is mentioned after the brine evaporation of boron to the water, 50 percent received four water and magnesium chloride mixture at 700 ℃ calcined 2h, to be a mixture of magnesium oxide and so on, and then add the flooding taking lithium (Li leaching solution containing 0.14%) with milk of lime and soda ash to remove calcium, magnesium and other impurities, the solution to the evaporation of Li containing about 2% by adding sodium carbonate to precipitate out lithium carbonate, lithium yield of about 90%. After calcined magnesia slag refined purity of 98.5% of magnesium oxide obtained by-product. This approach is conducive to comprehensive utilization of resources such as lithium-magnesium, low consumption of raw materials, but the extraction of magnesium so that process complex, equipment corrosion and serious and would need a larger amount of water evaporation, energy consumption of major.
CITIC Guoan (23.8,0.22,0.93%) of lithium carbonate is the adoption of the technology, the company with potassium, which provides post-boron-containing lithium-bischofite saturated brine as the raw material, using spray drying, calcining, water washing, evaporation concentration and precipitation process, from high-Mg-Li conducted in magnesium than in salt lake brine lithium separation of lithium carbonate to obtain high-quality and high-purity magnesium oxide and hydrochloric acid by-product industries.
1.2.5 Cost Comparison
From a cost perspective, the ore is much higher than the cost of extracting lithium from salt lake brine lithium mentioned Latitude D500 Battery, previously the law had been introduced ore production costs roughly 3 tons / tons.
In addition to production technology, the salt lake brine lithium to mention the various processes that affect the cost of lithium carbonate are two main factors:
1, Salt Lake in the lithium content of the high and low, in general, the higher the cost of salt the lower lithium content; 2, Salt Lake in the Mg-Li ratio, the smaller the better in general than the Mg-Li.
Tibet Mining (13.98,0.30,2.19%) developed a high lithium content Zabuye Salt Lake, though slightly lower than Chile’s Atacama Salt Lake (SQM’s development), but the Salt Lake Zabuye Very low levels of magnesium, magnesium and lithium than in the 0.003 or so, much lower than Chile’s Atacama salt lake, much lower than CITIC Guoan something to be developed taijnar than lithium salt of magnesium (the two Salt Lake than in the Mg-Li between 40-68 times), more critical is The salt lake in the form of lithium carbonate is based on the company processes required for lithium carbonate precipitates less, low cost, it is expected that the cost of Tibet’s lithium mining companies should be less than the SQM.
CITIC Guoan something to be developed taijnar lithium salt content low, substantially lower than Chile’s Atacama Salt Lake SQM lithium content of magnesium and lithium salt lake in the region than is very high, much higher than Chile’s Atacama salt lake Mg-Li ratio. However, because the two companies use different processes, SQM process on soda ash consumption of larger and CITIC Guoan large energy consumption is expected to CITIC Guoan Lithium Carbonate SQM’s costs and a considerable, but because of isolated magnesium, boron and other products, so utilization lower cost.
Chile’s SQM’s lithium carbonate estimated cost of 12,000 yuan / ton level, Tibet is expected to cost less than lithium mining company SQM, roughly at 10,000 yuan / ton, while the CITIC Guoan Lithium Carbonate costs are expected to around 12,000 yuan / ton or so (after the scale there is a certain drop in the cost of space).
2, lithium carbonate supply and demand analysis of
2.1 Li-ion batteries widely used in driving the growth of the global consumption of lithium
The global lithium carbonate market size is not large, according to SQM is estimated that in 2005 about 77.2 Latitude D505 Battery thousand tons. In recent years, demand for lithium carbonate showed rapid growth, especially the rapid growth of lithium batteries is most prominent. According to SQM is expected in the next few years, the world’s annual production of lithium-ion battery will maintain a rapid growth, annual growth rate of 30%. In addition, other issues such as ceramics, glass products, industrial air conditioning and alloys, lithium-demand growth fairly quickly.
With lithium salt as the key raw material for secondary battery in the electronics industry (laptop computers, mobile phones, digital cameras, as well as a variety of other consumer electronics) in a wide range of applications in 2003, the output of these batteries close to 1.4 billion in 2004 to reach 2 billion , and the future will continue rapid growth.
In power batteries, lithium-ion battery applications are expanding. At present Japan has a hybrid electric vehicle more than 70,000 is expected in 2010 will reach 2.1 million. The U.S. market is also very optimistic about growth prospects, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey, hybrid cars will become the market mainstream products.
China’s lithium-ion batteries in electric bicycles and electric bus application products as very promising. CITIC Guoan Mengguli the company’s commitment to the company’s “high-capacity manganese lithium power battery research” organized by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission inspection and appraisal topics have been identified to achieve international advanced level. Use Mengguli company 100Ah high-capacity secure manganese lithium battery powered electric bus, the maximum speed 120 km / h, on a single charge mileage of 210 kilometers, has completed the demonstration operations 12,000 kilometers. At present, organized by the National Development and Reform Commission automobile lithium manganese battery power the national standard-setting work has been approved by the specialists, Mengguli company is actively promoting the various parties seek to make loader Mengguli power lithium-ion batteries for electric bus vehicles put into operation as soon as possible at home and abroad.
According to SQM is expected in the next 5-10 years, the global lithium demand will be 5% -7% growth rate, this growth rate higher than the level of global economic growth, showing that the global lithium industry is a strong industry GDP. We believe that taking into account the power battery lithium batteries in the field of consumer electronics continued to expand, as well as an upsurge of optimism in the global lithium carbonate demand could be given an 8% annual growth rate, based on this assumption gives the global lithium Latitude D510 Battery carbonate demand conditions (table 3 ):
2.2 lithium carbonate worldwide industry concentration is very high, late and rapid expansion of production capacity
As the main raw material for production of lithium carbonate is the salt lake brine (France due to the high cost of ore production capacity in the global small), so that large-scale production of lithium carbonate of the enterprises must have a more abundant reserves of lithium salt lake resources, resource exploitation rights, which makes the industry with more the resources of the high barriers to entry; the other hand, the vast majority of the world’s resources are high-magnesium salt low-lithium, low-from high-magnesium lithium brine separation of lithium carbonate in the purification process technology is very difficult, only the hands of these technologies before the hands of a small number of foreign companies, which makes lithium carbonate industry, but also provides many technical barriers. Therefore, lithium carbonate has created the industry’s global oligopoly structure.
The current global lithium carbonate market concentration is very high. Several large-scale projects in China prior to their commissioning the world’s major production concentrated in SQM, FMC, and Chemetall three hands, which SQM capacity of 28,000 tons / year, FMC capacity of 22,000 tons / year, Chemetall capacity of 18 thousand tons, The three companies account for about a global production capacity of 73%. The latter part of the three companies have expansion plans, SQM plans for production in 2008 12,000 tons / year of new projects, FMC is expected on stream in 2009 of 5,000 tons / year of new projects, Chemetall planned for production in 2008 of 5,000 tons / year of the new items.
Although our country has a higher value of the salt lake resources, but has until 2004 to achieve high-Mg low-lithium brine purification of lithium carbonate solution, the key technological breakthroughs, enabling the country to enter the global lithium carbonate market. Currently there are planned large-scale projects there Latitude D520 Battery are two:
1, CITIC Guoan Planning, 35 thousand tons / year lithium carbonate projects, of which 25 thousand tons / year project has been with the January 11, 2007 put into operation successfully; 2, Tibet Mineral Planning 3 million ton / year lithium carbonate, its 5,000 tons / year production line put into operation in 2005, the current production lines operating conditions are generally expected annual output of 2006 tons in 1000-1500, the company is reporting 25 thousand tons / year lithium carbonate project, the project has been running since early flow, and therefore ton of time put into the project is difficult to estimate (in the back of production forecast, we assume that the company put into operation in 2008 by the end of the project).
3, lithium carbonate price trend analysis
Prices rose 3.1: Demand-driven pricing, or oligarchy?
The international market price of lithium carbonate in 2004 began a rapid rise after the process, the reasons for the rise, with many research institutions will be reduced to the needs of its rapid growth, and we took a different view: a global lithium carbonate demand and there is no explosive growth of production capacity is always guaranteed.
Our analysis of the international giants SQM Lithium Carbonate company since 2001, production of lithium carbonate and its derivatives and the achievement of income, found that the company’s 2005 production of lithium carbonate and its derivatives significantly reduced compared to 2004 by 14.72% in the world background of increasing demand, the company lithium carbonate production decline intriguing. In 2005, the result of reduced production of lithium carbonate is 30.03 percent revenue increase year on year, the global lithium carbonate prices here have begun rising.
At the same time in 2004, CITIC is China’s industrialization and development of peaceful and Tibet Mineral Lithium Carbonate imminent breakthrough time. CITIC Guoan’s pilot production line at the end of 2004, begin construction in mining in Tibet in 2005, successfully completed a 5,000 tons / year production line. The two companies are the 10000-ton lithium carbonate project planning, capacity almost equal to the size of the size of SQM. The completion of these projects put into production on the global lithium carbonate market impact is easy to foresee.
Can be seen, the global lithium carbonate price point is just quick-start projects face a breakthrough in China’s lithium carbonate, the late coming on stream of large-scale projects, the most likely to be driven lithium carbonate production in China’s large-scale projects as much as possible before the use of its monopoly Latitude D600 Battery power to earn more profits.
3.2 Price trend of late: prices are expected to return to the historical center
From Table 6 and Figure 2 shows, with the large-scale lithium carbonate projects in China gradually put into production, lithium carbonate or less balanced relationship between supply and demand will rapidly deteriorate in 2007 will be overcapacity in the global lithium carbonate 13.2 thousand tons, in 2008 the situation will deteriorate further, supply significantly exceeds demand, prices will inevitably lead to rapid decline.
For the release of capacity to focus on the impact of price shocks, an interpretation that since production concentrated in the hands of a few enterprises, these enterprises will ease the coordination of capacity utilization shocks. We doubt it.
China’s chemical industry has experienced more than capacity can focus on the release of earnings caused by a serious deterioration in industry conditions:
PVC industry by 2004 as high prices attracted a lot of money into the industry, resulting in 2005 annual production capacity can focus on the release, resulting in PVC prices from a high, sharp downturn, the whole industry into a downturn quickly, PVC sharp drop in economic efficiency of enterprises; polyester industry, along with a large number of poly – ester production competition, rapid deterioration of a substantial decline in product prices in the industry have also led to the rapid move toward a comprehensive loss-making situation.
Lithium carbonate products in spite of certain resources and technical barriers, but our values are readily available in Salt Lake is still a lot of mining, technology, inter CITIC Guoan, Tibet, outside the Salt Lake Mining Group, is also facing a breakthrough, trade barriers are gradually weakened, the industry is currently a high gross the interest rate is bound to attract more capital to intervene.
For the possibility of oligopolistic collusion, we believe that more difficult. Analysis of the income of the world’s leading companies constitute a lithium carbonate found that lithium carbonate in the main business of these companies share is very limited. 2005 SQM company’s main business revenue in the proportion Latitude D610 Battery of lithium carbonate and its derivatives, is only 9%, FMC Corporation’s lithium carbonate and its derivatives, the proportion of only 8%, lithium carbonate prices downward impact on its performance is very small.
In addition, the three giants in the development of downstream products of lithium carbonate have also been more successful, SQM in butyl lithium, lithium hydroxide involvement in the development of products such as deeper; FMC Lithium used in medicine, rechargeable batteries have a very major advantage; Chemetall lithium hydroxide, lithium hydride, and other lithium salts have a greater advantage of the development. Lithium carbonate is lithium salt, and other derivatives of the raw materials, lithium salts and other compounds added value is higher than lithium carbonate, especially in the field of medicine and battery products with high added value, these factories can be converted to the lithium carbonate More other high value-added lithium derivatives to eliminate lithium carbonate prices have fallen sharply negative impact.